Oil prices - What's the breaking point for you?

[repenttokyo]

my strategy: with my move to the states, my fuel costs will go down 30 percent, so there's no real crisis for me at this time.

[e34.535i.sport]

I'm praying for a miracle.

[repenttokyo]

Gotta drive that ///M5!

:D :D :D :D


I work from home, so the car is to the gym only on a daily basis, the rest is pleasure driving and the occasional call from Commissioner Gordon.

[pundit]

At what point do you need to rethink your car/living expenses?

Apart from gas at the pump, increased oil prices will feed into transportation, food production and manufacturing costs across the board.

As we are now close to 'peak oil' (if not we're there already), oil prices are going to skyrocket over the next few years.

Currently at $120.00 per barrel, anaylists predict $200.00 per barrel by the end of 2009 and $300.00 per barrel by the end of 2010 and climbing.

As for the biofuel alternative; the increased production of biofuels is now seriously impacting on global food prices particularly in poor countries.

Coupled with the mortgage crisis, record debt and looming rescession what are your plans for long term economic survival?

Are you hoping it will all sort itself out and that oil will soon drop back under $100.00 per barrel (wishful thinking) or are you actively planning a strategy?

Who's looking at their E34 and wondering at what point they won't be able to afford to fill the tank.

So will you then leave it in the garage hoping that things will improve, or sell it before you can't give it away?

We are living in interesting times!

[BigKriss]

give her some LPG

[Qube]

It's still worth it... at home in Toronto, it's $1.19 a litre. In Montreal, I didn't even try to fill up at $1.34!

[BMWDriver]

It's beginning to worry me a bit. Indeed, everything's bound to go up in prices. My number one priority is food. The car can sit on the tar because I use public transit for work. But, I don't use it that much, so it's no real cause for stress.

Speculation seems to be the problem; I read in an article that buyers with strong currency begin to find petroleum more attractive because the American dollar keeps going down, so they are buying a lot and driving prices up.

A few are making a buck on our back without much regard for humanity's sake, or so one might think.

[Ferret]

You're lucky... it costs me $115.00 USD!!

Quit whining! In the UK it costs anything upto $160USD to fill an E34 gas tank!

[pundit]

... Speculation seems to be the problem; I read in an article that buyers with strong currency begin to find petroleum more attractive because the American dollar keeps going down, so they are buying a lot and driving prices up.

A few are making a buck on our back without much regard for humanity's sake, or so one might think.
Speculation is a big part of it without a doubt.

I think there will be a point where there will be an outcry over speculative trading of oil, (well there is now really) but will that really change the situation with Bush & Co?

You only have to look at the all the Republican Party 'oil men' to see that is unlikely to happen on their watch.

George is now putting the Alaskan wilderness back on the agenda.

There is still plenty of oil in the ground but it is getting harder to get it out and production costs are going up and up.

It's like gold a few years back; many gold mines had become unprofitable, now that the gold price has gone up in the past couple of years many mines have reopened.

[Phatty5BMW]

Since I did the front end rebuild with good ol Hamburg Technic, I still haven't gotten an alignment on my car yet (which i butchered) :( I have either been driving the van (which gets better mpg that my 535!! belive it or not) or I have been cruisin around my turbo bike :) That bike is soooo damn fun AND gets 50mpg.

-Pat

[pundit]

I'm praying for a miracle.
Then you should join the Christian Conservatives, vote to keep the Republicans in power and pray that the U.S. invades another oil rich country sometime soon.

Simple really.

Don't bother with Darfur though, the Chinese have already got that area covered... and they're also looking at Antarctica.

That will prove to be interesting in Chinese/Australian relations to say the least!

[Paul in NZ]

its all relative,because alternative forms of transport will increase the same(proportionally) eg trains buses trams ,whatever they all use oil in some form or another...so the cost of getting to work and the cost of getting supplied is going to skyrocket,bio fuel is not the answer we can hardly grow enough food now.....for the moment i will keep using the 535 and drive it as econonomically as possible.Push bike and motorbikes are the next step for me but i will prolly keep the 5.Only a very small modern car is going to use appreciable less petrol or diesel.We need fusion.......

[Mitch90535im]

I only drive a couple of miles each way to the office, which I could walk or bicycle if I just had to, telecommute two days a week, and next spring if all goes as planned I'm going to buy a late model 1200 GS. We're definetly taking shorter trips in the RV this summer. I do feel sorry for anyone trying to cope with these prices (not just gasoline, but everything going up as result) living on a limited or fixed income like my mom or my kids. I don't think we're ever going to see gas prices here in the US like enjoyed for so many years. When I first bought my e34 89 octane was running around .79 - .89 per gallon here in North GA. I think I gave $3.59 when I filled up last week. It took about $350 round trip in the RV from N GA to Savannah and back week before last.

My attitude is that we will adapt, we will do whatever it takes, and the sun will still rise in the east tomorrow morning and set in the west tomorrow afternoon. What we need is an alternative fuel source for automobiles and eventually American inguenity will prevail.

[Blitzkrieg Bob]

At $50 to $60 bucks a fill up...I'll keep going till they pry the keys from my cold dead hand

F those bastidigs in their Hybrid fag mobiles.

[pundit]

At $50 to $60 bucks a fill up I can ride it out.
What about at $200.00?

[Blitzkrieg Bob]

What about at $200.00?


Gotta drive that ///M5!

[pgrindstaff]

I'll keep buying till it just isn't feasable anymore but I would really like to see what would happen if the speculators took a month off. I have a feeling we'd get some relief real quick. This is just wishful thinking though, they make too much money by driving the price of oil up.

[525i winter driver]

i don't drive much... summers i bicycle, and work's not far anyway. i think the whole world needs to use cars way way less and that we don't even take good enough care of the ones we have and we use them recklessly. i think gas prices should be higher, prohibitive transportation costs (instead of taxes) ought to force us to shop locally and seasonally, and that we should use hXmp for biofuel instead of food. (yes, we can) an inconvenience for most of us is already spelling disaster for billions of poor people.

anyway, gas is nothing compared to how much i spend on parts!

[Ross]

It cost ~ $70 USD to fill mine with premium. I'm ****in' well sick of it but as long as my neighbors all insist on driving gigantic heaps of **** the demand will outpace the supply and I(we) suffer.
I CANNOT WAIT to see all these humungo SUVs go to the crusher, worthless pieces of crap they are.
I'm ashamed of what a bunch of wasters and consumers many of my coutrymen are.

[Mitch90535im]

It cost ~ $70 USD to fill mine with premium. I'm ****in' well sick of it but as long as my neighbors all insist on driving gigantic heaps of **** the demand will outpace the supply and I(we) suffer.
I CANNOT WAIT to see all these humungo SUVs go to the crusher, worthless pieces of crap they are.
I'm ashamed of what a bunch of wasters and consumers many of my coutrymen are.

But Ross, the 535i M30 is not exactly an economy car either.

[pundit]

It cost ~ $70 USD to fill mine with premium...
You're lucky... it costs me $115.00 USD!!

[pundit]

But Ross, the 535i M30 is not exactly an economy car either.
True.. I have one too.

But even a 525 M20 is only going to give, on average, 10-15% better fuel mileage... maybe 20% absolute tops on a good day.

Think about it this way, a car that currently gets twice the gas mileage of a M30 535 will cost the same to run in three years as a M30 does now when gas prices have doubled.

But of course a M30 will just cost double... ouch!

[Ferret]

Yes, but E34s are cheap.

I get roughtly 170-200 miles out of £50-55 worth of petrol. (Roughly a weeks commuting + swimming and shopping trips)

So that's 170-200 out of ~110USD

Meaning a mile costs between 55-65 cents

See why they're so cheap now?


I feel bad for the prices you pay. Isn't a large portion of your fuel costs taxes?

Yes sadly in this country the govt gets away with mass rape.

I cant remember the exact figure, but it's like 65-75% of the value of the fuel we 'put in the tank' goes straight to the govt coffers - and I wouldnt mind but the oil barrel price here is still in the low 90s! We have a different supply route to you guys meaning our oil/gas is cheaper.

[repenttokyo]

if hybrids aren't the answer then what is the answer?

[pundit]

Quit whining! In the UK it costs anything upto $160USD to fill an E34 gas tank!
Okay... I'll shuddup now!

[Ross]

Correct Mitch. It is also lightly used, frequently carrying several passsengers and often cargo(where's my touring?).
My point was the wanton excess of SUVs. Seldom do they provide any utility and never sport for their owners. Only a size contest for the challenged.
My community is literally awash with these overgrown, overdecorated lumbering chicanes. Usually poorly piloted by a lone person mashing the throttle on and off trying to gain a spot in traffic, all the while juggling a latte and cell phone.
Sorry this is turning into a rant.
There is a connection between how much we use and how much we pay. Until demand diminishes prices will continue to rise.

[Ross]

Yes, but E34s are cheap. I feel bad for the prices you pay. Isn't a large portion of your fuel costs taxes?

[525iZA]

Interesting thread...

Well, it costs around $100 to fill up my BMW. I have had the car for less than a month now and I've driven close to 2000km (1250miles) and that's town driving only!! :(

I'm just hoping that my income will rise (there's prospects!) so that I can afford to run my car.

Problem is that anything that's meaningfully more fuel efficient costs 4x the price I paid for my BMW. And then I'm talking like Econo-shitboxes like a Toyota Yaris or what ever. Something that I don't WANT to drive.

So at this stage, it still makes sense (only just!) to drive my BMW. For how long, I don't know. If it comes down to it, my BMW isn't worth THAT much money. I'll probably be able to afford it having to stay in the garage and only used for the odd blast down the road. Here's hoping that never happens. :(

[healtoeit]

First of all, Interesting thread! I like everyone's opinions, fun reading. Come the military/collage, I wont be driving my e34 much. With that being said I will probly buy a motorcycle, and drive the panzer in winter/for fun/on the track. Last time I was at the Track a guy had a completely stripped out e46 M3, Daily driver, and he claimed 20 city 35 highway. SO! mabey losing a few pounds can help everyone! :p
Their is alot of reasearch out there about how fat people consume more fuel then fit people.

IMO:
I wont sell my e34 for the life of me.
The energy crisis is because we are too dependent on foreign oil.
Hybrids are not the answer in any way shape or form.
Nothing is going to change in our life time about abusing oil use

From a historic perspective:
Oil is a better reason to go to war for than any reasons that have been currently given.

[repenttokyo]

better yet, don't use drivethrus at all, great way to add fuel costs and environmental costs to the price of your meal.

[repenttokyo]

Has already happened..

I think the... "Iraq wasn't about oil" naysayers will eventually begin to rethink their views as they come to realise just how real and huge the global oil crisis is getting.
The 'so called' Saddam 9/11 connection and WMD ******** used to justify the Iraq invasion was just that... ********!

The ironic thing is that when the oil crisis becomes serious enough, a larger percentage of the population (who can no longer afford to fill their SUV's with gas) will actually support a war fought in the name of oil and the government will no longer have to concoct a story to justify it.

From a futurisic perspective:
Oil WILL be the reason to go to war!

And who will fight over it?... No prizes for guessing!

what happens when the war machine itself runs out of oil?

[whiskychaser]

F those bastidigs in their Hybrid fag mobiles.
Dont be shy, say what you mean:D

[skr]

i pay almost 2$ for diesel... beat that :))

[repenttokyo]

I agree with you man, however I'm stating that from a historic perspective economic industries have always been reasons for war. Look at how my country was founded! The land I live on was fought over for economic gain by the british. No one is bitching about it now!
.


nobody is bitching about that because they are all dead. both of our countries slaughtered the original owners of north america in huge numbers and then herded them into reservations where they could be kept under control.

[attack eagle]

I paid $65 to top off the tank last night... but choices of transport are 0.

Too far to bike to school, and I have a very specific schedule to keep, Plus no public transport.

I'm not going to ride a suicide booth (crotch rocket) because Saving money does no good if you are dead, so the Bimmer works for me. Just need to improve gas mileage in town.
Should be better after changing the filter, brakes, and driveshaft.

I might buy myself a (real) $500 minitruck though as a DD in the fall. not these midsized ones but the 80's ones that pulled down high 20s low 30s.

[Robin-535im]

My two cents... and prediction for the next 20 years...

High oil prices are fantastic. They are a necessary evil, without which no real energy policy change will occur.

Congress has yet to take real action to promote alternative energy sources, but $6.00 a gallon gas will make other forms of energy economically viable.

As they become more viable, more money & technology will be devoted, and we'll have better and better economies of scale regarding things like solar, batteries, wind, geothermal, etc. This will make them more competitive and begin to whittle away at the use of oil.

China will still buy oil by the giga-gallon but they too will eventually adopt cleaner energy as the cost/benefit tilts in favor of cleaner energy.

In 50 years we will still have $10 a gallon gas but gas stations will be very rare and only a few of us will be buying it. Including me... I'll still be storming around in the E34...

[repenttokyo]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

and here...

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AlasBabylon/message/32238


thanks for the link pundit. I just checked out the Olduvai theory, and it seems to me the trouble with it is that it takes into account only oil as an energy resource. Where I live, for example, we have extremely cheap hydroelectric power and plenty of clean water - Quebec - meaning that running out of oil will not lead to blackouts and and end of sanitary living conditions. I think we as a people are far too adaptable to have a world wide catastrophe result when oil dries up...as has been suggested elsewhere in this thread, I think we will simply see alternative energy reach a price point where it becomes economically viable.

[AngryPopTart]

Just keep throwing enough cash at your E34 to put 1/4 to 1/2 a tank in it so that you save on weight and get better mileage than if you had filled it all the way up. ;)

Use lighter weight oil.

Open the windows instead of using the A/C.

Are there underdrive pulley sets for our cars?

Skinny, lightweight wheels.

Switch to skinny, lightweight, high-mileage tires instead of sticky performance tires.

Get the junk out' the trunk... in more ways than one!

[scott540]

I'm lucky I work from home. I go through a tank about every 6 weeks in the 540 . My wife works close so a tank every 2 weeks.

I had to fly to my main office in Mpls last week for some meetings and I was talking to one of our admin assts . She said she drives 45 minutes each way and was complaining about filling up her Suburban that she is thinking of selling. Crazy. her commute alone is about 60 miles round trip. That's at least 4 gallons a day figuring a generous 15 mpg or roughly 15 bucks a day. She's probably only making maybe 40K a year so almost 1 hour a day goes for gas.

I have a neighbor that drives a Naviagor 40 miles one way every day. almost 2 tanks a week. Crazy. I don't know how some people do it having to shell out that much a month just for gas

[attack eagle]

Skinny, lightweight wheels.

Switch to skinny, lightweight, high-mileage tires instead of sticky performance tires.

Get the junk out' the trunk...

these are good, the first 3 are silly.

A/c has a lesser impact on mileage at over 45 mph than open windows. Open windows blowing 90+ degree dry air do very little to cool you off as well.
underdrive pulleys reduce efficiency of accessories, very bad in lower rpm conserative driving.
Lighter weight oil? bosh, I run 20w50 because that is the correct oil for the temps in summer for the m50, and anything lighter gives lifter tick.

Here is a good one:
park your car in the garage during the day so it stays cool inside.
If not, don't crank it to cool off the interior before driving.
use a dashboard window cover to keep temps down inside.
Don't idle in drive thrus, shut the car off instead.
Keep your tires aired up to recommended pressures.
Keep up with tuneup maintenance.
Drive a route that lets you keep stops to a minimum, avoid jackrabbit strts and if possible try to time the lights so you don;t stop and start.

[pundit]

...From a historic perspective:
Oil is a better reason to go to war for than any reasons that have been currently given.

Has already happened..

I think the... "Iraq wasn't about oil" naysayers will eventually begin to rethink their views as they come to realise just how real and huge the global oil crisis is getting.
The 'so called' Saddam 9/11 connection and WMD ******** used to justify the Iraq invasion was just that... ********!

The ironic thing is that when the oil crisis becomes serious enough, a larger percentage of the population (who can no longer afford to fill their SUV's with gas) will actually support a war fought in the name of oil and the government will no longer have to concoct a story to justify it.

From a futurisic perspective:
Oil WILL be the reason to go to war!

And who will fight over it?... No prizes for guessing!

On a side note...

It would be interesting to conduct a survey of SUV owners...

Q. Would you consider it justifiable that your country goes to war so you can keep driving your SUV?

I think the results would surprise quite a few.

[pundit]

what happens when the war machine itself runs out of oil?
That's an easy one...

Rocks & sticks! ;)

[pundit]

...As they become more viable, more money & technology will be devoted, and we'll have better and better economies of scale regarding things like solar, batteries, wind, geothermal, etc...
Who owns the patents on large capacity Nickel-Metal-Hydride Batteries?

Do a search and see what you come with! ;)

[healtoeit]

I agree with you man, however I'm stating that from a historic perspective economic industries have always been reasons for war. Look at how my country was founded! The land I live on was fought over for economic gain by the british. No one is bitching about it now! My point is that society has changed, if the means are for economic gain people will not understand enough to realize that it might be a good or a bad reason. No one will explain WHY and non of the public is listening. American society is just full of idiots on both sides of the political spectrum.

The Iraq war is a different issue all together. With that being said, I'm not a warhorse, however I'm not with the idea of turning Iraq into a loss, look at all the good we have done in Afghanistan to help their country, I believe that we can help the people in Iraq, but if anything is going to get done over there they need to shape up and want to get helped.

Anyway, I just filled my tank after school,$65.90usd, expensive yes, but as soon as I pulled out fast, right there, it was worth every penny.

[Ross]

But the queen has nice hats.

[pundit]

I agree with you man, however I'm stating that from a historic perspective economic industries have always been reasons for war...
Not quite true.

Although there is undoubted financial gain for those companies who make money from conflict (the military equipment suppliers and post war re-construction companies ie. Haliburton) most of the 'big' wars have been the result of religious or ethnic differences over the centuries.

Sure the victors will then plunder 'the spoils', but often what's left is too spoiled to plunder.

The bottom line is... WARS ARE ****ING EXPENSIVE TO RUN!!

So things have to be very desperate to go to war for purely economic reasons.

Iraq was essentially about securing oil supplies into this next century, however with the escalation of events, insurgencies and an un-workable exit strategy, the U.S. has now found itself in an total quagmeyer.

The Iraq war and credit crisis is currently close to bankrupting the U.S.

Fear based religion/ethinicity is historically the most effective tool any government can use to motivate it's population into entering a conflict.

Okay the Spanish invaded, raped, pillaged and plundered (Inca gold etc) but still brought their religion with them... and their diseases.

However we are entering a new phase with oil, water, food, etc becoming the new catalyst for conflict.

Of course the 'Great Motivators' will still mention 'God' 'ad infinitum' but they will do so with their eyes firmly fixed on the spoils.

[RockJock]

It's the plunge into the Olduvai Gorge folks! Overshoot and collapse into the post industrial stone age.....

So, drive the hell out of that ///M5 while the party is still on....:D

http://i307.photobucket.com/albums/nn291/190166/pic1.jpg
http://i307.photobucket.com/albums/nn291/190166/pic2.jpg
the energy blip....just like consumption of suger by bugs in a petri-dish!
http://i307.photobucket.com/albums/nn291/190166/pic3.jpg

[pundit]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

and here...

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AlasBabylon/message/32238

[Jehu]

I earn my living driving so i have no choice if i am to keep at this.. Just raise the rates commensurate with the cost of fuel. I don't even consider the cost of gas except as a function of the rates for my driving.

[RockJock]

so, did you start accumulating Au @ $US245 an OH ZEEEE? ;)

[RockJock]

---snip---

So will you then leave it in the garage hoping that things will improve, or sell it before you can't give it away?

We are living in interesting times!


That's so true. Can you imagine what a Hummer H2 will be worth in a few years? I burn about $20/day and I'm noticing the used market for trucks getting softer and softer....I need a VW TDI that'll get me 1,000km/tank @ 40 bucks/tank...

What most people don't 'get' is that this 'peak oil' thing refers to conventional oil (i.e., the good high quality stuff at the apex of the "resource pyramid"). We're talking light sweet crude and not the $hit they're inefficiently (really $hitty EROEI) mining out of the tar sands. So, basically, what this means is that the age of cheap oil is coming to an end....and as we move down the pyramid extraction/exploitation gets much more costly from an energy return on energy invested perspective.

[Robin-535im]

Who owns the patents on large capacity Nickel-Metal-Hydride Batteries?

Do a search and see what you come with! ;)
From what *little* I know - lithium ion are the leading technology at the moment and have 5x the energy density.

The T-Zero runs 250 miles and 0-60 in ~4 seconds using Li Ion...

[repenttokyo]

And where does the electricity come from to power 'said' electric cars?

Here in south eastern Australia most of our electricity is generated from dirty brown coal burning power stations. We have limited hydro and no nuclear here.

So in reality we'd be driving electric cars that, while not burning oil, are burning brown coal instead. Not a long term solution one would think.

Don't get me wrong, electric cars are going to be appearing everywhere over the next five years; it's just they need clean renewable power to charge them if they're going to be a sustainable, long term solution.

Part of the solution could be your home.
ALL new houses should be required to have at least 3KW's of solar power generation, solar hot water and water tanks.
This solar power could be used to charge your car for several days so you could drive for several hours.

Lots of electric cars mean lots of batteries.

Battery technology still needs more improvement, not just in storage and power capabilities but also in recyclability with minimal wastage and toxic by products.


you will have to buy your clean renewable energy from parts of the world that have waaaaay too much of it, like us ;)

[Zeuk in Oz]

Interesting thread, pundit.

I think the price of petrol is still relatively cheap given the independence internal combustion engines give us.

Had cars just been invented, there is no way that the politicians would have let us have them.

A litre of petrol is cheaper than a litre of water in a bottle or a litre of milk - both of which are readily renewable.

I feel that there is little point in complaining, but rather suggest that future cars that any of us buy, new or second hand, should be powered by diesel. This will give us a 50% fuel saving compared to petrol engines in one go. I own 2 common rail direct injection diesels - a MB 270 CDI and a MB 115 CDI Vito van. Both are automatic, seat 7 or 8 and use less than 10 litres per 100 km.

I own 5 cars and all use less than or about 9 - 9.5 litres per 100 km.

[repenttokyo]

I get most of these criticisms, but here wego:

1) Where to get the electricity? Fact: Even if you continue to use your current infrastructure without expanding 50% of cars can be recharged without affecting energy production. Why? Because nighttime production is still way over capacity.
Next is renewable energy. It's easier to control electricity production resources than millions of ICE cars on the road requiring heavily refined products to supply the energy. Better yet, nuclear energy is quickly becoming environmentally sustainable with newer reactor designs and even waste can be used to make electricity and inert bricks without radioactive waste being an issue. Systems to do this are being pioneered all over the world and the waste treatment system in Israel.
Besides, Photovoltaics are going to drop in cost substantially over the next five years (-75%) with the advent of new production techniques (check out nanosolar).
In Australia I can imagine there's ample room for a few Concentrated Solar Power plants like the (small) experimantal one in Spain operating at 100MW.

2) Batteries not big enough? Well yes and no: current technology Lithium batteries are capable of giving you some 100-200 miles autonomy depending on the type of design and size of the packs. This technology is rapidly evolving. Besides the lithium batteries, other battery-types are well on the way that could change the game entirely.
Best option now: altairnano batteries, full charge capable in 10 mins, but requires a strong charging infrastructure to get the desired 10 mins to full charge. That infrastructure wouldn't be as big as the existing gasoline station network because 90% of the time people would charge the car at home at night.
You're right about recyclability and if EESTOR pulls through this year that might no longer be an issue with their ultracaps. Those are expected to appear in EVs in 2009.

Part of the reason these technologies are evolving at a speedy rate is the current high oil price, so I'm not that angry with the situation.
You'll see that the auto industry is finally catching up and are starting to build PHEVs wich pretty much aknowledges that they understand that the ICE may be on the way out and gone by 2020. They're mostly stalling because the investments for retooling are still to steep compared to the shortterm return on investment.


great post, thanks for the info.

[pundit]

thanks for the link pundit. I just checked out the Olduvai theory, and it seems to me the trouble with it is that it takes into account only oil as an energy resource...

Oil, or the lack of it as far as an energy source is not the only issue.

Pesticides, fertilisers etc. mostly require or use some petroleum based by-products in their production along with nearly all forms of manufacturing whether it be automotive, building products, plastics, rubber, electronics, most textiles, pharmaceuticals, paint, dyes etc. etc .etc.

Just about every product in our world requires petro-chemicals to exist.

One of the major concerns is a net reduction in global agriculture yields not just because farmer Brown can't afford the diesel for his tractor but due to fertiliser and pesticide shortgages.

Add to that agricultural land being utilised for biofuel production and already many countries are experiencing food shortages and sky rocketing prices.

[pundit]

Here's a few more links...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_increases_since_2003

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

[repenttokyo]

Whats nice is my car is fully equipped to run E85 if I need. Right now the price of 93 octane + methanol is still well below the price of 109 - 112 octane unleaded, so I am not too worried right now. The price increase always comes with summer and then settles down more...

People like to look at gas prices without looking at the prices of other things as well. $3.50 cannot buy today what $3.50 could buy 10 years ago regarding all things, not just fuel. Inflation is a very real aspect too.


even adjusted, gas prices now are higher than they have ever been.

[repenttokyo]

Nice perspective, but all wars are conducted on the basis of fear. And most social fears boil down to economic fears.

Doesn't mean they are conducted for PROFIT, but foreconomic reasons... fear of losing a resource, fear of losing economic (& thus politicals and social influence) etc. The greatest 'religious' war in history, the Crusades, was actually fought for economic reasons. WWII the same.


how exactly was wwii fought for economic reasons? if i recall correctly, england was fighting to keep from falling under German control like most of the rest of Europe.

[Morgenster]

two words: electric cars. They're a comin and they're gonna be stayin.

[repenttokyo]

Japan for access to resources needed to supply it's industry and economy. Also for fear that it's access to key supplies such as Oil would be shut off by the US and other powers.

Germany for the same, and to get out from under the economic limitations, reparations, and resultant hardships imposed by the treaty of Versaille.

i can see the Japan side, and it is interesting to note that Japan lost the war as soon as they started it due to natural resources.

But for Germany - while the economic restrictions of Versaille plunged Germany into economic turmoil that definitely resulted in the Nazi's rise to power, the war itself sprung from Hitler's nationalism and desire for more power for Germany - not economics.

[pundit]

two words: electric cars. They're a comin and they're gonna be stayin.
And where does the electricity come from to power 'said' electric cars?

Here in south eastern Australia most of our electricity is generated from dirty brown coal burning power stations. We have limited hydro and no nuclear here.

So in reality we'd be driving electric cars that, while not burning oil, are burning brown coal instead. Not a long term solution one would think.

Don't get me wrong, electric cars are going to be appearing everywhere over the next five years; it's just they need clean renewable power to charge them if they're going to be a sustainable, long term solution.

Part of the solution could be your home.
ALL new houses should be required to have at least 3KW's of solar power generation, solar hot water and water tanks.
This solar power could be used to charge your car for several days so you could drive for several hours.

Lots of electric cars mean lots of batteries.

Battery technology still needs more improvement, not just in storage and power capabilities but also in recyclability with minimal wastage and toxic by products.

[Morgenster]

And where does the electricity come from to power 'said' electric cars?

Here in south eastern Australia most of our electricity is generated from dirty brown coal burning power stations. We have limited hydro and no nuclear here.

So in reality we'd be driving electric cars that, while not burning oil, are burning brown coal instead. Not a long term solution one would think.

Don't get me wrong, electric cars are going to be appearing everywhere over the next five years; it's just they need clean renewable power to charge them if they're going to be a sustainable, long term solution.

Part of the solution could be your home.
ALL new houses should be required to have at least 3KW's of solar power generation, solar hot water and water tanks.
This solar power could be used to charge your car for several days so you could drive for several hours.

Lots of electric cars mean lots of batteries.

Battery technology still needs more improvement, not just in storage and power capabilities but also in recyclability with minimal wastage and toxic by products.

I get most of these criticisms, but here wego:

1) Where to get the electricity? Fact: Even if you continue to use your current infrastructure without expanding 50% of cars can be recharged without affecting energy production. Why? Because nighttime production is still way over capacity.
Next is renewable energy. It's easier to control electricity production resources than millions of ICE cars on the road requiring heavily refined products to supply the energy. Better yet, nuclear energy is quickly becoming environmentally sustainable with newer reactor designs and even waste can be used to make electricity and inert bricks without radioactive waste being an issue. Systems to do this are being pioneered all over the world and the waste treatment system in Israel.
Besides, Photovoltaics are going to drop in cost substantially over the next five years (-75%) with the advent of new production techniques (check out nanosolar).
In Australia I can imagine there's ample room for a few Concentrated Solar Power plants like the (small) experimantal one in Spain operating at 100MW.

2) Batteries not big enough? Well yes and no: current technology Lithium batteries are capable of giving you some 100-200 miles autonomy depending on the type of design and size of the packs. This technology is rapidly evolving. Besides the lithium batteries, other battery-types are well on the way that could change the game entirely.
Best option now: altairnano batteries, full charge capable in 10 mins, but requires a strong charging infrastructure to get the desired 10 mins to full charge. That infrastructure wouldn't be as big as the existing gasoline station network because 90% of the time people would charge the car at home at night.
You're right about recyclability and if EESTOR pulls through this year that might no longer be an issue with their ultracaps. Those are expected to appear in EVs in 2009.

Part of the reason these technologies are evolving at a speedy rate is the current high oil price, so I'm not that angry with the situation.
You'll see that the auto industry is finally catching up and are starting to build PHEVs wich pretty much aknowledges that they understand that the ICE may be on the way out and gone by 2020. They're mostly stalling because the investments for retooling are still to steep compared to the shortterm return on investment.

[attack eagle]

Not quite true.

Although there is undoubted financial gain for those companies who make money from conflict (the military equipment suppliers and post war re-construction companies ie. Haliburton) most of the 'big' wars have been the result of religious or ethnic differences over the centuries.

Sure the victors will then plunder 'the spoils', but often what's left is too spoiled to plunder.

The bottom line is... WARS ARE ****ING EXPENSIVE TO RUN!!

So things have to be very desperate to go to war for purely economic reasons.

Iraq was essentially about securing oil supplies into this next century, however with the escalation of events, insurgencies and an un-workable exit strategy, the U.S. has now found itself in an total quagmeyer.

The Iraq war and credit crisis is currently close to bankrupting the U.S.

Fear based religion/ethinicity is historically the most effective tool any government can use to motivate it's population into entering a conflict.

Okay the Spanish invaded, raped, pillaged and plundered (Inca gold etc) but still brought their religion with them... and their diseases.

However we are entering a new phase with oil, water, food, etc becoming the new catalyst for conflict.

Of course the 'Great Motivators' will still mention 'God' 'ad infinitum' but they will do so with their eyes firmly fixed on the spoils.

Nice perspective, but all wars are conducted on the basis of fear. And most social fears boil down to economic fears.

Doesn't mean they are conducted for PROFIT, but foreconomic reasons... fear of losing a resource, fear of losing economic (& thus politicals and social influence) etc. The greatest 'religious' war in history, the Crusades, was actually fought for economic reasons. WWII the same.

[Incantation]

peak oil is a myth.. just another move by the rich class to squeeze the middle class into poverty. the real estate market is another big obvious play for the same purpose
etc

[Incantation]

but anyway i won't sell my vehicles i just drive mine less and use the motorcycle and/or my gf's civic more

[attack eagle]

That reeks of Marxist/Commie elitist thought.

The bourgeoisie is consciously out to get the working class, BS

They are out to get as much as possible for their investment/cost, jsut as the working class is out to get as much as possible for their investment/cost from the rich and the poor, and the poor are out to get as much as possible from the rich and working class.

IT's jsut good business, and self-protection

[Jon K]

Whats nice is my car is fully equipped to run E85 if I need. Right now the price of 93 octane + methanol is still well below the price of 109 - 112 octane unleaded, so I am not too worried right now. The price increase always comes with summer and then settles down more...

People like to look at gas prices without looking at the prices of other things as well. $3.50 cannot buy today what $3.50 could buy 10 years ago regarding all things, not just fuel. Inflation is a very real aspect too.

[attack eagle]

It may not settle much this year jon...
Agreed about inflation though, but at our average ~2% compounded it still doesn't make up for the disparity in pricing we have seen in the last year- 18 months. Those increases are transport and production cost (fuel) related

Post Katrina we showed we were willing to pay much Higher prices than previously expected... and so we are getting charged more.
Until prices get high enough to reduce US consumption significantly, we will not see them stop increasing.

[attack eagle]

how exactly was wwii fought for economic reasons? if i recall correctly, england was fighting to keep from falling under German control like most of the rest of Europe.

Japan for access to resources needed to supply it's industry and economy. Also for fear that it's access to key supplies such as Oil would be shut off by the US and other powers.

Germany for the same, and to get out from under the economic limitations, reparations, and resultant hardships imposed by the treaty of Versaille.

[RockJock]

peak oil is a myth.. ---snip---

Inc -- Can you expand on this please, I'm interested...

[Incantation]

i did expand on it.. peak oil was created by the rich class to trounce the middle class back into poverty

oil itself does not even come from "fossils" .. that is another load of shxt created by oil companies to create the illusion of limited supply allowing them to fix prices to suit themselves.

it's a small part of a huge, complex equation.. one which i don't have time or interest to discuss on here. do some digging.. you will be surprised at what you find

[repenttokyo]

The only reason Germany went into Africa was for oil. The only reason Hitler gained power was because he offered his people a better life and they believed them. Part of that better life was economic gains

hitler went into africa for oil for his war machine because he needed it to continue the fight into russia. hem ay have offered his people a better life, but his own agenda was fueled by a hatred for non germans, particularly communists, and he could not stand sharing europe with them.

if the war had just been about economics, surely he would never have attacked russia.

[repenttokyo]

oil itself does not even come from "fossils" .. that is another load of shxt created by oil companies to create the illusion of limited supply allowing them to fix prices to suit themselves.


this is a minority opinion.

[repenttokyo]

agree to disagree :)

[bsell]

To be honest, I’ve never heard knowledgeable proponents of the idea of biogenic oil say that it is derived from dead dinosaurs, dinosaur poop or fossils…..

That being said, I thank you for the clarification, I get it now. Just to sum things up: All petroleum found on earth is abiogenic in origin and it comes from reservoirs that are re-charged in real-time.

All methods/techniques developed to increase recovery factors such as water flooding, solvent flooding, CO2 miscible flooding, stream injection, horizontal drilling, frac jobs…etc, etc have been invented to drain even more money from the middle class. The apparent decrease in the quality of hydrocarbon resources is completely fictitious and the planet is awash in light sweet crude.

I call BS…:p

I tell you what, the total crap that some folks think up and pass as gospel, I guess the oil fairy drops oil off at the refineries free of charge...

I picked up a book a couple months ago, 'The Prize' by Daniel Yergin thinking it was new and that it covered the current oil situation vis a vis Iraq/Afghanistan. Come to find out, it was published in 1991, which pissed me off as I thought I was getting a new book...'Now a major PBS series' so what.

Anyway, it is an entertaining read on the rollercoaster ride that oil and the economy it created has had since 1859. (I don't have any money connections to this book other than what I paid for it and will get to my point shortly.) I take back my ill thoughts of the book store managment for 'tricking' me into buying the book.

In many ways, it is sad to see that society has not advanced the oil conservation cause in the 30+ years since America's big wake up call that was the '70's 'oil crisis.' I am left with the feeling we squandered one hell of an opportunity to prevent the mess that is coming over the next 40 years or so.

The only real way to eliminate human kind's influence on the climate is to step back to the days before fire was 'found' by man. Which basically means, human kind must remove itself from the face of the earth for all practical purposes. I don't know anyone willing to do that, do you?

Brian

[fujioko]

My daily driver gets 40+ MPG. I cant wait till all the SUV's are crushed.

Once there was a time when the SUV/Big truck people hogged the road and tailgated... now I have noticed they are in the slow lane doing 55MPH. Soon they will be gone.

When the road is filled with econo sh**boxes then I'll complain about that too.

[healtoeit]

But for Germany - while the economic restrictions of Versaille plunged Germany into economic turmoil that definitely resulted in the Nazi's rise to power, the war itself sprung from Hitler's nationalism and desire for more power for Germany - not economics.
The only reason Germany went into Africa was for oil. The only reason Hitler gained power was because he offered his people a better life and they believed them. Part of that better life was economic gains

[RockJock]

i did expand on it.. peak oil was created by the rich class to trounce the middle class back into poverty

oil itself does not even come from "fossils" .. that is another load of shxt created by oil companies to create the illusion of limited supply allowing them to fix prices to suit themselves.

it's a small part of a huge, complex equation.. one which i don't have time or interest to discuss on here. do some digging.. you will be surprised at what you find


To be honest, I’ve never heard knowledgeable proponents of the idea of biogenic oil say that it is derived from dead dinosaurs, dinosaur poop or fossils…..

That being said, I thank you for the clarification, I get it now. Just to sum things up: All petroleum found on earth is abiogenic in origin and it comes from reservoirs that are re-charged in real-time.

All methods/techniques developed to increase recovery factors such as water flooding, solvent flooding, CO2 miscible flooding, stream injection, horizontal drilling, frac jobs…etc, etc have been invented to drain even more money from the middle class. The apparent decrease in the quality of hydrocarbon resources is completely fictitious and the planet is awash in light sweet crude.

I call BS…:p

[healtoeit]

if the war had just been about economics, surely he would never have attacked russia.
Russia controled the balkins, and the land east of germany. He would have invaded russia reguardless of his goals.

Anyway! This does not matter to the orgonal post, so I'm stopping here, sry pundit for getting off topic!

[pundit]

... So, to make a long story short, the bible thumpers could see their “Rapture” but in reality it’ll be a self fulfilling one with a “Darwinian” flavor…

But what about the 'Intelligent Design' crowd.

http://users.net2000.com.au/~rowmat/images/jurassic_ark.jpg

I mean couldn't they solve the problem in say... six days?

Well alright then... a week! ;)

[Ken35i]

Interesting stuff....

I actually was told today that people in the USA are paying about 95cAU per LITRE for petrol.
In Australia we're paying around $1.50AU per litre.
In UK they pay something like $2.30AU per litre.

The price will keep going up for ever until us, the people, lower our consumption of oil. When we start consuming somthing else, like bio-fuel, someone will capitalize on that.

Invading oil rich countrys wont make fuel cheaper, it will make it more expencive (we've (the allies) invaded 2 oil rich countrys in less than 10 years and...well look where we are.) I think oil is paying for these 'wars'.:(

So what's the future? Well there's this little 'battle' I guess between electric and hydrogen. Each technology has a perfectly working example; the T-Zero someone mentioned and the BMW H7. But I think hybrids are the best. We've been connecting electric and petrol motors together for a long time and all you need is a bit of fuel (petrol or Diesel). You may think that something like the Toyota Prius is an expencive (they are, really) POS, but wait for the next generation of Prius/hybrids. They will get cheaper and better.
Purhaps somthing like hydrogen is a long term solution. It's new and we don't have the infrastructure for it to be as wide spread as petrol is now (which is what 'they' want).
We just have to ween ourselves off petrol over time. We won't be driving hydrogens/electrics in 5-10 years, too quick, I think.
Fact is life will get more and more expencive for a while until somethign implodes.

Personaly, with the 535i, I was averaging 7.5lit/km that was in some stop/start traffic with 98RON petrol. A tank could last me 2 working weeks if I drove economicaly and didn't drive on weekends. Now my hours have changed (I start earlier) now there's no stop/start traffic...and since my cars been on axle-stands for a while now, I'm yet to know what I get :P, but it will be less comsuming.

But what I find REALLY annoying is the jumbled up posts. It's really hard to follow threads of this size because of it. It's been doing this for...6 months now?

[RockJock]

I tell you what, the total crap that some folks think up and pass as gospel, I guess the oil fairy drops oil off at the refineries free of charge...

I picked up a book a couple months ago, 'The Prize' by Daniel Yergin thinking it was new and that it covered the current oil situation vis a vis Iraq/Afghanistan. Come to find out, it was published in 1991, which pissed me off as I thought I was getting a new book...'Now a major PBS series' so what.

Anyway, it is an entertaining read on the rollercoaster ride that oil and the economy it created has had since 1859. (I don't have any money connections to this book other than what I paid for it and will get to my point shortly.) I take back my ill thoughts of the book store managment for 'tricking' me into buying the book.

In many ways, it is sad to see that society has not advanced the oil conservation cause in the 30+ years since America's big wake up call that was the '70's 'oil crisis.' I am left with the feeling we squandered one hell of an opportunity to prevent the mess that is coming over the next 40 years or so.

The only real way to eliminate human kind's influence on the climate is to step back to the days before fire was 'found' by man. Which basically means, human kind must remove itself from the face of the earth for all practical purposes. I don't know anyone willing to do that, do you?

Brian


I hear yah!

I remember reading “The Prize” the last time the POO hit the skids (@ almost $10 a bbl in 1998). It’s a good read and I’d highly recommend it.

It takes about 10 hydrocarbon calories to produce 1 food calorie; that’s how dependent on oil we are! Not only are tons of Chinese itching to drive gas guzzling SUV’s but millions and millions of people in India are lusting after “Bodacious Tatas” :D…haha., I made a funny. Could we be witness to the starvation millions if not billions over the next 50 to 100 years? I don’t know, but I’d have to say it’s very, very possible.

Just look at the infrastructure around you. How much of it would have been possible without hydrocarbons? The frugal use of valuable hydrocarbons is absolutely crucial to our survival at current population levels. How are you going to build massive hydro projects without burning a drop of oil? Windmill farms? Solar panels? Lithium batteries?, any batteries?, hydrogen? (Currently primarily made from non-renewable CH4 and petroleum)…etc…etc. It would only take a single cruise missile to take out a hydro project, a nuclear reactor…etc. I’m not an economist but I think most economic models (particularly the ones born from the Chicago School of Economics) are based on growth which requires the intermittent destruction of lots n’ lots of stuff to reset the growth cycle….obviously in for a head-on collision with the second law of thermodynamics.

We just about went extinct 70,000 years ago and we fought our way back from a group of about 2,000 individuals. We’re in midst of a human generated mass extinction anyways and it started the instant we emerged in Africa…..now @ about 30,000 species a year, biodiversity is vanishing at breakneck speeds.....a mere blip on the geological time scale.

So, to make a long story short, the bible thumpers could see their “Rapture” but in reality it’ll be a self fulfilling one with a “Darwinian” flavor…..

P.S. Got Gold?

[RockJock]

But what about the 'Intelligent Design' crowd.

I mean couldn't they solve they problem in say... six days?

Well alright then... a week! ;)

I dunno man, personally, I'm counting on the Flying Spaghetti Monster :)

[lowerlover]

boy good old bush did a number on all of us didn't he

[dr540]

Who's looking at their E34 and wondering at what point they won't be able to afford to fill the tank.

So will you then leave it in the garage hoping that things will improve, or sell it before you can't give it away?

We are living in interesting times!

Anyone else thought or done a CNG conversion?

[Sam-Son]

as far as Im concerned there is no breaking point Ill drive my car no matter what

[repenttokyo]

yea because the 4 media companies that control all north american media feed you truth? lol


not everyone has a tv, dude...

[Incantation]

yea because the 4 media companies that control all north american media feed you truth? lol

[attack eagle]

So what's the future? Well there's this little 'battle' I guess between electric and hydrogen. Each technology has a perfectly working example; the T-Zero someone mentioned and the BMW H7. But I think hybrids are the best. We've been connecting electric and petrol motors together for a long time and all you need is a bit of fuel (petrol or Diesel). You may think that something like the Toyota Prius is an expencive (they are, really) POS, but wait for the next generation of Prius/hybrids. They will get cheaper and better.
Purhaps somthing like hydrogen is a long term solution. It's new and we don't have the infrastructure for it to be as wide spread as petrol is now (which is what 'they' want).
We just have to ween ourselves off petrol over time. We won't be driving hydrogens/electrics in 5-10 years, too quick, I think.
Fact is life will get more and more expencive for a while until somethign implodes.


Hydrogen... still comes from fossil fuels. (cracking natural gas)
or comes from fossil fuels powering electrolysis... even more wasteful and expensive.

Electric cars... powered by fossil fuels...

100% of the electricity I use comes from natural gas.

Neither is as dense and inexpensive a power supply as petrol.

After 3 mile Island, the US never built another Nuclear plant in the US, and even if they did, those are best as base load units.
The Sierra club and other environuts would rather we pollute the air with fossil fuels than accept nukes... because NOT using power and going back ot being preindustrial is NOT an option for us. The power has to come from somewhere, and that somewhere will be the least expensive option possible.


I just might buy myself an Mk1 MR2 though for my commuting fun.

lighter and far better economy than the Touring... but then I still need to do more maintenance on the Touring, brakes, another zf310, new DS, etc.
Would I be saving money if I spent a couple of thousand on a more fuel efficient vehicle that got 50% better economy, or would it be a waste?
At this point it looks like a waste to buy a more fuel efficient car even at $2000 based on the cost of ownership.
$40 a week instead of $60 so about $1000 a year saved on fuel, which would probably pay for repairs and cost of ownership... leaving me still in the hole 2 grand.


If gas got to $6 a gallon, then yeah, I'd sell the touring in another year when I no longer need the room.

[attack eagle]

more than 4 media companies Incant...
Ap and Reuters are two, I bet you can name at least 3 more.

but if you truly believe that then you are gonna hate me. I want to work in the industry. That means covering what I think is important, AND that which the stupid american populace will stop 30 seconds to watch. Talking to an empty room is not communication after all.

[rob101]

Electric cars... powered by fossil fuels...

100% of the electricity I use comes from natural gas.

Neither is as dense and inexpensive a power supply as petrol.

Natural gas is a hell of alot cheaper especially given the increase in effeciency vs. a petrol engine. even with coal fired power plant an electric car will put out the same emissions as a HEV, at about half the energy costs.
likewise i can go and buy 100% wind or solar energy at about 5% more for the same amount of electricity. how can you match that without an electric car? given that wind and solar represent over 70x less carbon dioxide than coal including life cycle costs of producing the power plants (http://www.uic.com.au/ComparativeCO2.htm). I fail to see how a gasoline powered HEV is ever going to match that.
http://avt.inel.gov/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf
we don't use miles and gallons but we do use kWh with green electricity, fuel aready costs $4+/gallon here and electricity is about 17c/kWh for 100% green, so basically that graph says that electric car beats gasoline power hybrid even assuming the worst effeciency electric drive systems around.